Qualifying analysis before Monaco GP 2026

Kimi Antonelli won an exciting qualifying session in Monaco in great style, beating Max Verstappen in the very end. During the session, the situation at the front changed many times, and it was uncertain who would win until the end. I invite you to an analysis of the qualifying session before the 2026 Monaco GP.

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Qualifying in Monaco was held in very good weather conditions, with falling temperatures. The competition started when the track surface was 47 degrees and ended when it was less than 35 degrees Celsius. During qualifying, we only had one red flag when Bortoleto crashed at the end of Q1.

2026 Monaco GP Qualifying Results

The fight for Pole Position and race forecast at the front

It was a very exciting qualifying session, the situation changed several times. Drivers from the four leading teams were in contention throughout the session, but in the very end, only three drivers were fighting for Pole Position.

Kimi Antonelli impressed me the most this season. Before this weekend, I didn’t give Mercedes any chances; everything indicated that they would perform worse on this track. They made a breakthrough in their setup after weaker Friday practice sessions, but I still thought that when it came to driving at 100% in Q3, other drivers would fight for Pole Position. Kimi Antonelli drove a brilliant lap at the very end of qualifying and beat Max Verstappen. Looking at the sector times, the Italian had the second-best time in each of them, Verstappen was fastest in the first and third, and Hamilton in the second. Antonelli improved more between his first and second timed laps in Q3, which was crucial. It was already clear that Antonelli is a great talent and drives very well. Performances like in Monaco will convince other fans/experts.

Max Verstappen was fastest in Q2, and after the first runs in Q3, he was behind Antonelli by 0.001 seconds. He drove a great final lap and was clearly leading. The Dutchman had overall records in two sectors on that lap; it looked like he would cause a big sensation and take PP, but then Antonelli surpassed him. However, it was an excellent performance by Verstappen, which also confirms Red Bull’s growing form (Hadjar was fifth, which is a great result). This year’s Red Bull car performs better on this type of track than last year.

The last driver fighting for Pole Position was Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque messed up his first run in Q3. He was the only one of the front-runners to go out for two timed laps during his second run. The first of these gave him a temporary lead, but overall it was only enough for fourth place. During the second, Leclerc was improving and driving truly on the limit, but he exceeded it, hitting the barrier at the end of the second sector. At that moment, he was on course for Pole Position considering his intermediate times, but it must be emphasized that on earlier runs, he was losing to Verstappen and Antonelli in the third sector. It’s hard to say if he would have won without that impact, but he certainly would have been right next to the two fastest drivers. Leclerc was not happy with the brakes on his car all day, he had to take more risks, and as we can see, it didn’t pay off this time.

Lewis Hamilton took third place, confirming that he is driving much better this year. The Briton was consistently fastest in the second sector. However, he was equally consistently too slow in the first – he only had the eighth-best time there. Therefore, he was not really in contention for Pole Position; third position was the maximum he could achieve given his pace. Hamilton must be satisfied with third place, he beat Leclerc, who is a specialist on the Monaco track.

As for the race forecast, I expect three things. I don’t count on a direct fight at the front, but rather drivers keeping an eye on each other. I expect that not everyone will run the same strategy. I think Verstappen or Leclerc, having nothing to lose, will start the race on harder tire compounds, hoping that an inverse strategy will allow them to gain positions. A potential safety car will be crucial, as it is always the most important factor in Monaco; one must react strategically and wisely.

Overview of the rest of the drivers and teams

Isack Hadjar deserves praise for taking fifth place. He lost a lot to Verstappen, but his lap time and position are very good considering the Frenchman’s experience in the team and his crash during Friday practice.

George Russell has a lot to think about. His position and time are what I expected from Mercedes in Monaco. Antonelli, however, beat him by almost 0.4 seconds, which is a huge gap on such a track. Russell simply had no recipe for driving faster. His final lap was very decent, he clearly improved compared to Q2, but Antonelli was out of reach. Russell is starting to open up about this year’s Mercedes car not suiting his driving style, and that could be a problem for the entire season. We’ve seen such cases in previous years.

The biggest negative surprise for me is McLaren’s performance. In theory, they should have been fighting for PP here; their car has the shortest wheelbase and a lot of downforce, but they fell apart in qualifying. In Q1 and Q2, it was still okay, but in Q3, both drivers performed poorly. Norris started one very fast lap, but must have made a mistake somewhere, because the final time was poor. Seventh and eighth positions are terrible results.

Outside the top four teams, Pierre Gasly and Liam Lawson also advanced to Q3. They competed for ninth place, with Gasly being the best. On Sunday, their task is to maintain their positions and wait for the favorites to have problems to move higher.

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The Williams drivers were on the verge of advancing to Q3, which confirms the team’s improved form. Albon beat Sainz in qualifying for the first time this year, with Sainz taking his worst career qualifying position in Monaco.

Sergio Perez was a whisker away from Cadillac’s first-ever Q2 appearance. He missed out by 0.025 seconds. Bottas again lost a lot to him, but at least he beat both Aston Martin drivers.

Both Haas drivers were eliminated in Q1. Bearman crashed in practice and was therefore in a worse race situation. Ocon had a chance to advance higher but was pushed out at the last moment.

The last two places in qualifying were taken by the Aston Martin drivers. If anyone thought that only the Honda engine was responsible for their poor form, today they have the answer that it is not. For comparison, in 2015, both McLaren drivers advanced to Q2 in Monaco, and back then Honda was losing more to other engines than this year. The AMR26 car is as unsuccessful as the engine; the drivers had many problems with it in Monaco.

Preview of the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix

The Monaco street circuit is the shortest, narrowest, and slowest track on the entire Formula 1 calendar. It is a venue where overtaking in F1 races is extremely difficult; a driver going 2-3 seconds slower can effectively block a rival. If a driver doesn’t make a mistake, drives the optimal racing line, and performs well on the exits to the two main “straights,” overtaking them is practically impossible. The run to the first corner is very short. The last driver to lose the lead on the first lap after starting from Pole Position in Monaco was Juan Pablo Montoya in 2002. A detailed characteristic of the Monaco track, along with a diagram, can be found at this link. On this track, this year’s power units perform ideally; drivers always have full electrical power available.

Teams modify their cars specifically for the Monaco GP. The general rule is to set as much downforce as possible, as top speeds are irrelevant. Teams also modify the suspension, as efficient driving over curbs is very important. For these reasons, the balance of power in Monaco is often different from usual. Qualifying is extremely important and largely determines the race results. In 2026, two issues are important. Active aerodynamics cannot be used on the track, and the profile of electrical power delivery has also been changed. The goal was to limit top speeds, as they would be too high, thus creating a risk of serious collisions. The regulatory changes will have a positive impact on the possibility of direct combat; there is a chance for individual overtaking maneuvers in the race on both straights. In 2026, many teams introduced new aerodynamic features on their rear wings, taking advantage of the ban on active aerodynamics. Intricate solutions appeared in place of the mechanism.

Pirelli always brings the softest tire compounds to Monaco because the degradation level is the lowest of the season. Usually, the only challenge is graining, but this year Pirelli announced after Friday practice that there was no such problem. Drivers must take the most care of the tires on the rear axle; if degradation is to occur, it will be there first. Historically, clean races almost always followed a one-stop strategy. The timing of the pit stop for a tire change is very flexible, as one set of tires can cover almost the entire race distance. In Monaco, track position is key; it’s not worth pitting to lose a position, because it’s very difficult to overtake a rival afterward. Front-runners should go with a soft-medium strategy. Personally, I won’t be surprised if someone from the front takes a risk and decides to start the race on medium tires, hoping for a safety car in the second half of the race. If a safety car were to occur on the first lap, there will be drivers who will change tires only once then, in which case they will likely opt for the hard compound to be 100% sure they will finish without any problems.

This year in Monaco, during the F1 visit, stable weather conditions prevail, but there is no heatwave. On Sunday, the air temperature is expected to reach a maximum of 23 degrees Celsius. So there will be no risk of overheating cars/tires. There is also no threat of rain. Monaco is famous for crashes and safety cars, but in the last five editions, the SC only came out during two. Marshals work very efficiently and quickly, clearing the track of car debris with cranes, which is why a short virtual safety car is often sufficient.

Summary

There’s no point in deluding ourselves and giving false hope, but races in Monaco are very predictable and processional. There are no chances for overtaking in direct duels in F1, unless someone makes a big mistake. Flawless driving and a good strategy, as well as reacting to potential safety cars, will be key. However, it seems to me that we will see a few overtaking maneuvers this year; these cars are smaller, and it will be possible to take a risk somewhere. Any change in position in the TOP3 at the race finish compared to the start will be a surprise. The thing about Monaco races is that they are always processions, but every few years something unexpected happens that changes the situation and is remembered for many years.

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