Many indications suggest that there will be no changes in the lineups of the top F1 teams before the 2027 season. Drivers will remain with the same teams for another year, and several of them have very long contracts. Spots in the best F1 teams are blocked, and the rest of the drivers will have to wait a long time for their chance.
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I had planned to write this article back in May, but due to lack of time, I put it aside in my drafts. Yesterday’s news about Charles Leclerc’s new contract with Ferrari made the message of this article even more timely. In 2026, we did not see a real change in the balance of power. The four best teams from previous years remained at the forefront of Formula 1, and their advantage over rivals even increased. None of these teams fell out of the top tier, and no other ambitious team managed to break into the top. We will wait for Aston Martin, Williams, or Audi for several years, but there is no guarantee that they will appear in the top tier. This means that in F1, there are eight places for drivers that guarantee the opportunity to compete for podium finishes and victories.
The eight best places in F1
The most important thing is not the names of the drivers who occupy these eight places, but their long-term relationships with the teams. This makes them very attached to their teams, and it will be difficult for both sides to decide to part ways if a given driver is performing at a high level. Norris, Russell, Antonelli, Verstappen, Hadjar, and Leclerc have been associated with their current teams since their junior days. Piastri was taken over by McLaren from Alpine even before his F1 debut. The only “hired” driver is Hamilton, for whom driving for Ferrari is probably the last stage before retirement. This is also the result of a strong focus on junior programs, which I wrote about a few days ago. F1 teams prepare such good drivers that they then no longer need to make transfers within the grid.
Lando Norris is a product of this team, having driven for them since his F1 debut in 2019. Last year he became world champion, there is no reason for him to leave. His contract extends beyond this season, but we don’t know the details of how far. He will probably soon negotiate a new contract, because as a world champion he has a stronger position.
Oscar Piastri has been driving for McLaren since his F1 debut in 2023. The Australian has a long contract, which may even cover the 2029 season. Piastri’s position in this team has not weakened despite losing the title fight last year. At the moment, he has no reason to think about changing teams. However, he seems to be an ideal candidate for a transfer if a spot opens up somewhere, or if, for example, Aston Martin started to catch up with the front-runners and was looking for a new leader to replace Alonso.
George Russell is a Mercedes protégé, associated with their junior program for nearly a decade, and has been driving for the main team since 2022. Russell is theoretically the leader of this team, and his contract will extend beyond the 2026 season. If he wins the title this year, he will stay with this team for a long time. If he lost to Antonelli and a conflict arose there, then there is a possibility of his departure.
Kimi Antonelli debuted in this team in F1, we don’t know how long his contract is. Given similar contracts for young drivers, it easily covers several years. Antonelli has been associated with Mercedes since his karting days. His form in F1 will continue to grow, it’s hard to imagine a separation within a few years.
Max Verstappen has been driving for Red Bull since 2016, and his current contract expires after the 2028 season. The Dutchman’s situation is the most unclear, but Red Bull’s improved form means that the threat of his departure (from F1 altogether) is decreasing. Verstappen could only move to Mercedes in F1, no other team guarantees him such an improvement in car performance compared to Red Bull. However, it doesn’t look like Mercedes needs such a transfer. Many indications suggest that Verstappen will stay at Red Bull, probably even fulfilling his current contract. I don’t think, however, that he will be a driver who will drive in F1 for a long time; he also wants to compete in other series.
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Isack Hadjar is a Red Bull protégé who is currently performing well in his debut with the main team. He has a good chance of staying with them for several years. If his form significantly weakened, Red Bull has two juniors in another team to replace him.
Charles Leclerc has been driving for Ferrari since 2019, and his recently signed contract may tie him to the Scuderia until 2030. The Monegasque must have at least considered leaving, as he himself says there were three teams that contacted him. However, signing a new contract now pushes that possibility away. Leclerc will drive for Ferrari for several more years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s until the end of his career.
Lewis Hamilton will be at Ferrari in 2027, and what happens after that is a mystery. The Briton may retire, stay with the team, or make another surprising transfer. Due to his advanced age, his place at Ferrari is the least certain long-term among the eight drivers discussed.
Summary, the rest of the grid, and conclusions
For significant reshuffles to occur in the top teams’ lineups, a surprising move by a certain team/driver is needed, which would trigger a domino effect. For example, Verstappen’s sudden departure from F1, or an internal conflict at Mercedes that would lead to one of the drivers leaving.
The situation at the top puts truly good drivers who are stuck in midfield teams in the worst position. Drivers like Carlos Sainz or Pierre Gasly may never get a chance in a top team. They are currently at the best age for success, but they are driving in the midfield. In 2-3 years, if spots open up at the front, teams may opt for younger talents. The only chance for such drivers is to establish themselves as leaders of midfield teams and hope that their teams will develop.
Red Bull has juniors they can potentially promote to the main team. Ferrari has Oliver Bearman. McLaren is organizing intensive tests for Leonardo Fornaroli this year; if the Italian shows adequate form, he will be a favorite to fill any vacant spot. Only Mercedes currently does not have a junior ready for promotion to F1. Three of the four top teams already have additional protégés in reserve, should a lineup change be necessary.
I am curious about the case of Aston Martin. They started this season terribly, but everything is in place there to think about breaking into the top in a year or two. Fernando Alonso is 45 years old, he won’t be driving in F1 for long. Many indications suggest that when Aston Martin genuinely enters the top tier, it will be with a different leader. I wonder who they will hire? If it were, for example, Piastri, Verstappen, or Russell, then a spot would open up in other top teams, and a domino effect could occur. I recently had an idea that if Hamilton desperately wanted to extend his career, he might go to Aston Martin for a year or two for a lot of money. He would fit Lawrence Stroll’s plans, who took other champions – Vettel and Alonso – at the end of their F1 careers.
