Analysis of qualifications before the 2026 Spanish GP

Lando Norris secured Pole Position at the debuting F1 track Madring thanks to a great lap at the end of qualifying. The competition was very close, with drivers from four teams within 0.2 seconds. Welcome to the qualifying analysis ahead of the 2026 Spanish GP.

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Qualifying at the Madring circuit was held in air temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius and track temperatures over 50 degrees. Surprisingly, no one crashed during the session, and there were no interruptions. Oliver Bearman did not appear on the track at all because Haas mechanics did not manage to repair his car after a crash in the third practice. Lance Stroll went out on track but did not complete a timed lap due to a failure. Therefore, there are 20 drivers in the results table.

Qualifying results for the 2026 Spanish GP

Discussion of the Pole Position battle and race forecast

As expected, the Madring track was a very good arena for competition in the qualifying session. Until the very end, it was unclear who would win, with four drivers from four different teams within less than 0.2 seconds. Eight drivers from the top teams were within less than 0.5 seconds. Madring is a complex track with many corners, so such small time differences are surprising.

Lando Norris took Pole Position, surprising most observers. The Brit improved by a whole second compared to Q2, driving a great lap in Q3 until the last corner, where he had a slide costing him 0.2 or even 0.3 seconds. Norris had a chance to dominate the qualifying session because without that mistake he would have had over a quarter of a second advantage over the second driver. This shows how well Norris drove and the advantage he could have had over the rest of the field. Before the weekend, McLaren was my favorite (considering their form in the Netherlands and Hungary), but Norris lost the second practice due to a failure, and in the third, due to a red flag, he had no chance to make up for lost time. However, the Brit adapted very well in qualifying and gradually got faster until he won. He will be a favorite in the race, but he did not do a long-run simulation this weekend. The question is how he will perform over a long distance?

Kimi Antonelli narrowly lost the fight for PP, appearing to be the favorite to win. The Italian drove his optimal lap, setting the third sector record with a large margin over rivals. However, at the very end, Norris beat him. Antonelli deserves praise because this type of track does not suit the characteristics of the Mercedes car, so the result is very good.

Max Verstappen was third, also competing for Pole Position. The Dutchman did not have an optimal lap, losing 0.1 seconds in the first sector compared to earlier. Verstappen had the second sector record, and the weak point (of the entire Red Bull) in qualifying was the third sector, where he always lost 0.2 – 0.3 seconds. So, when he did not drive perfectly in the first sector on his final lap, he could not count on PP. Third place for the Dutchman is still a success; he will have a real chance for a podium in the race. I expect he will start on soft tires, so he may aim for advancement.

In fourth and fifth positions were Ferrari drivers. Hamilton led after the first runs in Q3, but during the second runs everyone (including him) improved, and he dropped to fourth. Ferrari performed at their level because due to the power unit, it is difficult for them to compete in qualifying. A loss of less than 0.2 seconds to the winner is a good result. Leclerc is running this weekend with an older spec engine due to his crash last week. This certainly affects his performance. Hamilton on his final lap drove slightly worse in the first sector than during the first attempt (0.05 seconds), and Fred Vasseur even said after qualifying that he lost 0.15 seconds there. I watched the onboard and telemetry, and it seems to me this was due to the passage through corners 1 and 2; it was not optimal.

Russell, Piastri, and Lawson drove worse than their teammates and took positions 6-8. Russell had an unsuccessful third sector, overheated his tires, and drove slower than in the previous attempt. With an optimal drive, he had a chance to beat the Ferrari drivers. Piastri and Lawson were simply weaker than their teammates. Their laps were not perfect, but I did not see any possibility for them to realistically get closer to Norris and Piastri.

We have four very evenly matched teams at the front. Madring showed in junior series that overtaking is difficult here; track position will be key. Starting at the front may provide excitement because Verstappen and Ferrari drivers will probably start on soft tires – they deliberately saved them. The run to the first corner is short, so crashes or wide exits may occur there. Much can happen here. The key will be to get through the start cleanly. If it is a race without any neutralizations, I expect a fairly procession-like competition, controlling pace and position. The strategy should be one pit stop. The situation will change completely for better or worse in case of neutralization/red flag. If that happens at the start, drivers will change tires, and many may think about driving to the finish.

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Overview of other selected drivers and teams

The midfield was very close, with Alpine, Racing Bulls, Audi drivers, and Ocon from Haas competing, which was a surprise. Colapinto and Lindblad advanced to Q3. Colapinto beat Gasly and took ninth place, which must be considered a big success. Lindblad continues his series of Q3 qualifications. Ocon deserves praise because I did not expect the driver of this team to be so high. Probably the upgrade package from Monza works. Audi was traditionally on the edge of advancing to Q3.

The clearly weakest in qualifying were the Cadillac drivers. It is worth adding that Bottas was blocked by Sainz, who received a three-place grid penalty for this. The mentioned Sainz also dropped out in Q1, losing to his teammate by 0.005 seconds. Alonso also dropped out in Q1. It turns out that the improved Aston Martin car does not allow fighting in the midfield even on such a twisty and technical track.

Preview of the 2026 Spanish GP race

The debuting F1 track Madring is very demanding for drivers and cars. The track layout is varied, with different types of corners. It is difficult to perfectly prepare the car and also to drive an optimal lap in qualifying. Additionally, there are significant level differences on the track, with uphill and downhill sections, as well as a very demanding banked corner reminiscent of oval tracks. The track runs through two tunnels under the highway, and several corners are blind. The driver must maintain full concentration at all times; there is no room for error. The qualifying was exciting and demanding. However, I have considerable doubts regarding the race. The start straight and the run to the first corner are very short, so there should not be many overtaking maneuvers there. There is only one good overtaking spot on the track at corner number 5, but it is not ideal because passing through the chicane ending it is difficult and allows only one racing line. There is still a chance for overtaking maneuvers in the banked corner when there is a bigger pace difference between drivers. The full characterization of the Madring track along with a blog schematic can be checked here.

A distinctive feature of the Madring track is the banked corner number 12 called “La Monumental,” which is 548 meters long, with a maximum banking of 24% (13.5 degrees) at its steepest point. It can be taken on different racing lines, and drivers go there at full speed. Around it are stands for 45,000 people. If there were a possibility of direct wheel-to-wheel racing there, it would provide a unique experience.

Pirelli brought three middle tire compounds to Madring. The surface provides high grip from the start of the weekend and is well prepared. It is smooth asphalt, which at high temperatures means a risk of graining, but thanks to gradual rubber buildup, it should not be a significant factor in the race. After Friday’s practices, drivers were surprised by higher-than-expected tire degradation. The reason is the high temperatures and the loads the tires undergo over the entire lap distance. The pit lane at Madring is very long, so the time loss on a pit stop is among the highest of the season. The default race strategy should be one pit stop: medium – hard. Almost all drivers saved two sets of hard tires, securing themselves in case two stops are necessary. Potential neutralizations and red flags will be crucial, as then it will be worthwhile to change tires. Pirelli states that strategies involving soft tires instead of medium will be slightly slower.

On Sunday, the air temperature is expected to reach 34 degrees Celsius, so the track will heat up to over 50 degrees. Weather conditions are stable throughout the weekend. They will be very demanding for drivers but will also increase tire degradation. The risk of car failures also increases. Earlier F1 sessions and junior series races suggest a very high probability of neutralizations and red flags. Marshals do not work quickly, and barrier repairs take a long time. Teams will consider this in their strategy planning.

Summary

I do not have high expectations regarding the race progress. Usually, the first races on new tracks are boring. The layout of Madring additionally does not favor direct battles. It may be a typical procession like on street circuits, where you have to control your pace and position on the track. It can also be a chaotic race if there are neutralizations and crashes. Norris should be the favorite, but we will see if he can maintain a good race pace. If not, Antonelli or Verstappen may beat him. If Verstappen were to win a race this year, it would open up a chance for chaotic races with neutralizations.

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Read more Characteristics of the Circuito de Madring track in Spain