Verstappen capitalized on McLaren’s error in the 2025 Qatar GP

Max Verstappen won the 2025 Qatar GP race, thanks to a very serious strategic error by McLaren. The race was very predictable with few overtaking maneuvers and almost the same strategies. McLaren broke away, and their drivers lost a lot because of it.

Read more A handful of statistics after the 2025 Qatar GP

The race at the Losail International Circuit was held in ideal weather conditions, the track temperature was 28 degrees Celsius. In the race, we had a neutralization on the seventh lap after a crash between Hulkenberg and Gasly, which largely influenced the entire race.

Results of the 2025 Qatar GP race

Verstappen’s win thanks to McLaren strategists’ error

McLaren had the fastest car in Qatar and both drivers on the front row at the start, but they didn’t win the race. The strategic error made in Qatar will go down in history if one of their drivers does not become world champion.

Oscar Piastri had a very good start and led the race. Verstappen overtook Norris in the first corner, in my opinion the Briton decided to drive cautiously because he had a good start reaction and did not defend, third position was very good for him. In the first seven laps, Piastri led confidently and gradually increased the lead, and Norris stayed behind Verstappen. The situation was predictable. Then there was a collision between Gasly and Hulkenberg, which led to a neutralization on the seventh lap.

It was the seventh lap, so the ideal moment to make the first of two mandatory pit stops, but not at McLaren. Its drivers stayed on track, and everyone else changed tires (Ocon pitted a moment later). So we had Piastri and Norris in the lead, who still had to make two pit stops (each meaning a loss of 25-26 seconds), and behind them Verstappen, who had to perform only one more (like the whole field behind him). For an incomprehensible reason, McLaren did not use the ideal moment to change tires and thus fulfill the strategic obligation. The drivers remained in the lead, they had very good pace, but not enough to make up 25 seconds to Verstappen and still overtake him on track. Piastri led, set the tone of the competition and recorded really great times, on average he had a 0.3-0.4 second advantage per lap, which was too little to make up such a loss. Additionally, it turned out that the hard tires, which most of the field put on at the end of the race, allowed them to drive very fast. Piastri, having medium tires in the second half of the competition, stopped gaining time. In my opinion, McLaren planned to put on soft tires for the end, but because of this they also decided on hard ones.

Max Verstappen won the race with a lead of less than 8 seconds over Piastri. The Dutchman drove a very good race, he wasn’t the fastest, but McLaren’s strategists made his task easier. Piastri was the fastest driver on the track, but finished only in second position.

Lando Norris, on the other hand, was only fourth. The Briton, due to being behind Piastri, fell to further positions after his pit stops, which cost him time. He also had some problems with the car in the middle phase of the race when he had to slow down, and then Verstappen even closed in on him. Norris was fifth after his second pit stop and despite the pace advantage was unable to overtake Antonelli. However, the Italian made two major mistakes at the very end (I think he pushed too hard and the tires started to wear out) and thanks to that Norris finished fourth.

I completely don’t understand McLaren’s behavior, because every sensible team must have had a scenario for a pit stop at such a moment. They should have called both drivers, even if Norris lost something then, it would be a maximum of 1-2 positions, which he would make up having 45 laps of clean driving ahead of him. This was a huge team error that opened up a chance for Verstappen for this year’s world championship. McLaren’s strategy would only be good in a situation where there was a second neutralization later. If McLaren had a good strategy, Verstappen’s chances would only be mathematical. McLaren’s strategic error will, in my opinion, be even more costly for its drivers than the disqualification in Las Vegas. Both lost a lot of points and Verstappen is realistically in the fight for the championship. The season finale will look completely different, it will be nervous.

Very boring race and the whole weekend at the Losail circuit

In Saturday’s sprint we had a real procession, in which there were only three overtaking maneuvers, but none “real”. Antonelli overtook Alonso because the latter had previously gone off track, and Lawson overtook Leclerc off track and then gave him back the position. In Sunday’s race it was slightly better, because there were a few overtaking maneuvers, but in my opinion fewer than ten. In 2021 and 2023, this track provided very good races. In 2024, they shortened the DRS zone and it was much worse. In 2025, the more developed aerodynamics of the cars made overtaking extremely difficult.

The main problem in the race was the neutralization on the seventh lap, which was the ideal moment for the entire field (except McLaren). The race was 57 laps long, according to the rules set by Pirelli, everyone could do a maximum of 25 laps on one set of tires. This meant that almost everyone performed pit stops on the 7th and then on the 32nd lap. There was no strategic diversity and associated overtaking opportunities. Drivers were able to drive at 100% for 25 laps on a given set of tires, it’s too short a distance for degradation to appear on them.

Read more Qualifying analysis ahead of the 2025 Abu Dhabi GP

Discussion of other significant driver and team results in the 2025 Qatar GP

The big winner of the race was Carlos Sainz, who took third place. A podium for a Williams driver in Qatar seemed completely improbable. Sainz started from seventh on the grid, gained two positions on the first lap. He found himself ahead of Antonelli during the first round of pit stops. Later it seemed that he was heading for fourth place, but he had good enough pace to the finish line that Norris didn’t manage to catch him. He maintained the podium despite unspecified problems with the car in the final laps.

Fifth place was taken by Kimi Antonelli, who gained one position at the start, but later through no fault of his own lost it during the pit stops. At the end it seemed he would be fourth, but he made two mistakes in successive corners, which allowed Norris to overtake him. This was not any intentional letting through, Antonelli did not stage these mistakes. He pushed very hard and lost grip in the corners, that’s the whole secret.

George Russell lost as many as three positions at the start and was running seventh, and lost another place in the pit stops. Only at the very end did he overtake Alonso when the latter made a mistake and Hadjar, who had a puncture. Sixth place is a result below the potential of the Mercedes driver, who had performed better earlier in Qatar.

Fernando Alonso finished in seventh position, even though his race pace was among the weaker ones. He had a good start and then maintained a high position, holding back rivals behind him. Due to a mistake and a spin on the track, he lost the chance for a higher position.

Charles Leclerc, despite losing a position at the start, eventually finished in eighth position, benefiting mainly from the problems of the drivers ahead of him.

Hadjar lost a lot of points, having a puncture at the very end while running in sixth position. Tsunoda benefited from this, scoring one point. Bearman had a loose wheel during a pit stop, received an extremely harsh drive-through penalty and a 10-second stop, which excluded him from the fight for points. Ocon received a 5-second penalty for literally minimal movement of the car on the starting grid. It seems that the movement tolerance has been greatly reduced. The collision between Hulkenberg and Gasly was rightly judged a racing incident.

In the race, breaking through higher in direct duels was practically impossible. Positions were decided by the first lap, as well as the first round of pit stops, because several drivers lost positions due to traffic, especially when the team did a double pit stop.

Current general classifications after the 2025 Qatar GP can be found here.

Summary

It was one of the most boring races this season, but its results mean that an extremely interesting season finale in Abu Dhabi is in store. The potential of the McLaren and Red Bull cars should be very similar there, so an interesting fight is expected. Lately, there have been many errors and unlucky situations at McLaren, while Verstappen avoids all trouble in races and scores very high.

The results of this race very strongly influenced the layout in the world championship. This is what the TOP3 looks like before the season finale. A podium finish for Norris guarantees the championship title regardless of other results. Verstappen must win and hope that Norris is at most in fourth position. Piastri, wanting to become world champion, must beat Verstappen by 4-5 points (depending on their positions at the finish), and Norris would have to have a very unsuccessful race in which he scores only a few points. Norris remains the favorite, but he cannot have any slip-up in the race.

Read more Qualifying analysis ahead of the 2025 Abu Dhabi GP

1. Lando Norris 408
2. Max Verstappen 396
3. Oscar Piastri 392