Qualifying analysis ahead of the 2025 Abu Dhabi GP

Max Verstappen was fastest in qualifying at the Yas Marina circuit, followed by Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, who are fighting him for the championship title. The qualifying results promise an exciting battle for the championship title in the race. I invite you to the qualifying analysis before the 2025 Abu Dhabi GP.

Read more Verstappen won the 2025 Abu Dhabi GP and Norris became world champion

Qualifying at the Yas Marina circuit began with a track temperature of 28 degrees Celsius, which later dropped slightly. There were no crashes; everyone drove exemplarily in the final qualifying session of these technical regulations.

Qualifying results for the 2025 Abu Dhabi GP

Discussion of the competition at the front, race forecast, and the battle for the world championship

Max Verstappen secured Pole Position, he was clearly the fastest in Q3. Both of his timed laps in the final segment would have given him the win. The Dutchman achieved overall records in the first and second sectors on his final lap, which was no surprise as he had an advantage there since the beginning of the weekend. Verstappen also drove excellently in the third sector in Q3, losing only 0.04 seconds to the fastest McLaren driver (Piastri). McLaren’s strength throughout the weekend was precisely the third sector, where they had a few tenths of an advantage over their rivals. In Q1, Piastri had as much as 0.4 seconds of an advantage over Verstappen there. The Dutchman drove excellently in the third sector on both of his Q3 laps, and that was the decisive factor that secured him Pole Position.

Suggestions have emerged that Red Bull changed the car’s setup, focusing more on qualifying pace. The course of the practice sessions did not suggest a Verstappen win in qualifying, let alone by such a margin. Whether this is the case will be revealed in Sunday’s race. If such a decision was made, it is 100% logical. Verstappen must win the race to hope for the championship title. If the McLaren drivers were ahead of him in qualifying, there would be a risk that they would pull away and he would lose all chances. Even if Verstappen had some problems with long-run pace in the race, he should be leading and defending hard, while, for example, Norris must be very careful and will not be forced to attack at all. In my opinion, Red Bull is not set up more for qualifying; they are simply slightly faster than McLaren, which is also confirmed by Tsunoda’s better-than-usual form.

Lando Norris took second place after a very good final lap in Q3. I had the impression during this qualifying that Norris was driving cautiously and not pushing hard, only taking more risks at the end of Q3, which gave him second place. The situation with Oscar Piastri, who took third place, looks much more interesting. The Australian performed an excellent lap in Q1; that time would have also given him third place in Q3. Between Q1 and Q3, Piastri gained only less than 0.2 seconds, while Verstappen gained 0.6 seconds and Norris 0.75 seconds. Track conditions were improving all the time, as were the drivers. Piastri had personal bests in every sector on his Q3 lap, including the overall record in the third. However, it seems to me that he had some potential in reserve, and if he had utilized it, second place was realistic.

It seems to me that McLaren will have a slightly better car in race pace. It could also be that Pirelli’s increase in tire pressures on the front axle affected their pace more, because on Friday the rest had problems with excessive wear of the front right tire. Now it might have leveled out.

The top three had a pace advantage over their rivals. Only Russell had the potential to be close, but his last lap was not perfect. We will see how the race unfolds, as it could be very nervous. Assuming no neutralizations and changes on the first lap, the advantage of the top three should be greater than in qualifying, and the strategy will be simple – one pit stop. Verstappen can win the race, but that is not enough for him. He needs Norris to be off the podium. Therefore, I expect various tactics. Verstappen could, for example, be very aggressive at the start, trying to push Norris somewhere, risking losing out himself, or he could deliberately slow down Piastri and Norris in the second half of the race so that someone catches up and overtakes them (like Hamilton slowed down Rosberg in 2016). Certainly, Norris has a lot to lose and must be careful. Piastri, on the other hand, in my opinion, has nothing to lose. He could be a dark horse here and, in case of tactical moves from Verstappen and Red Bull, risk an attack. To become champion, Piastri must win and hope for weaker results from both rivals, so from his perspective, risk is advisable.

From the perspective of the McLaren drivers, the most important thing is a clean start; even losing one position, for example to Russell or Leclerc, will not be a problem because the orange cars will have better race pace. If the start is clean, I expect McLaren will want to gain something through strategy so that one of their drivers overtakes Verstappen during the pit stops. I expect, for example, that they will try to extend the first stint. In the second half of the race, it will just be about guarding positions. If Piastri finds himself in second position after the start, I expect him to attack for the win on track or through strategy.

It is worth adding that the McLaren drivers each have two sets of hard tires for the race (the only ones on the grid) and one set of mediums. Verstappen has two sets of mediums and one set of hards. If the drivers go for two pit stops, the McLaren drivers will have slightly slower but also more durable tires.

Overview of other selected drivers and teams

Discussing the rest of the drivers, it is worth highlighting two things. In Q2, the entire field was within 0.367 seconds, which is a record. The balance of power was incredibly even. For Q3, only Verstappen and Russell had two sets of new tires each, while the rest had one. Some drove slower in Q3 than in Q2 or improved only slightly (Tsunoda’s time was deleted for track limits). The balance of power could therefore have been slightly different if everyone had shown 100%.

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George Russell was the only driver from the rest of the field with the potential to fight for the TOP 3, but even if he had driven his last lap perfectly, he would have fallen a bit short. Charles Leclerc’s performance must be assessed differently, as the Ferrari car was not pleasant to drive, yet the Monegasque still took a very good fifth position. Their teammates, however, disappointed and were eliminated in Q2 (Antonelli) and Q1 (Hamilton). Hamilton was eliminated for the third time in a row in Q1. The Briton had two very good sectors but heavily messed up the third on his decisive attempt.

Alonso, Bortoleto, Ocon, Hadjar, and Tsunoda drove very well in qualifying, advancing to Q3. For these drivers, advancing to the final segment in such a close battle is a success. They will be in a better position to fight for points.

The balance of power is very even, so it will be interesting to see how this affects the battle of the drivers further down the field. This could lead to a procession and DRS trains, or we will have a very interesting race with many duels.

Preview of the 2025 Abu Dhabi GP race

The Yas Marina circuit in Abu Dhabi, after a reconstruction carried out a few seasons ago, is a fast and flowing facility dominated by straights and fast corners. The changes helped with overtaking, as it is easier to stay behind a rival and there are more opportunities to attack. There are two very good places for overtaking on the track at the end of the DRS zones. The run to the first corner at the start is quite short (300 meters for the driver starting from Pole Position), so significant changes in order usually do not occur then, but a battle is possible in the following sections, until the end of the second straight. Detailed characteristics of the Yas Marina Circuit along with a diagram can be found at this link.

Pirelli most often brings the softest tire compounds to the Yas Marina circuit because this track is gentle on tires. Even after the layout change from the 2021 season, the loads the tires are subjected to have not increased; it is a typical average in this regard on the scale of the entire calendar. Drivers must focus on the tires on the rear axle, as traction on the exit onto the long straights is key. On the other hand, in some seasons (as is happening in 2025), the phenomenon of graining appears on the front axle, which negatively affects pace and increases degradation. Races in Abu Dhabi take place with a one- or two-pit-stop strategy. Due to the fact that overtaking is easier, relatively little time is lost entering the pit lane, and the “undercut” is effective, in recent years the scale has tipped towards two pit stops. Such a strategy allows for fast driving throughout the distance. One pit stop requires good tire management and using only medium and hard tires, as softs will not last long enough. This year, drivers should aim for one pit stop and a medium-hard strategy, but many drivers have kept extra tires as insurance in case of two pit stops.

The weather remains the same throughout the weekend; it will be warm and sunny on Sunday. The most important thing for drivers and teams is to adapt to the falling track temperature to make the best use of the tires. Safety car deployments are not common in Abu Dhabi. There is a very high risk of crashes on the first lap on this track. After that, the chances of neutralizations drop. In the event of a neutralization in the middle of the race, the situation will change significantly. Short virtual neutralizations related to clearing broken cars are possible.

Summary

The three favorites took places in the TOP 3 in qualifying, so the battle for the world championship in the race promises to be very interesting. The competition between Verstappen, Norris and Piastri will be the main topic of Sunday; everything else will just be the background. Historically, most drivers do not want to get involved in duels with drivers fighting for the championship title in the last race of the season. They usually behave very cautiously, just to avoid doing anything stupid. I hope it will be an exciting final, without controversial decisions from the stewards or race direction. On paper, Norris remains the favorite for the championship, but he is not a guaranteed favorite; he must drive a very good race. Verstappen will be the favorite to win the race, but to become world champion, he will need other favorable results.

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