Analysis of qualifying before the 2025 Qatar GP

Oscar Piastri won the qualifying for the 2025 Qatar GP, which was at a very high level, as most of the field improved on last year’s track record. The three world championship contenders took the top three positions. I invite you to the qualifying analysis before the 2025 Qatar GP.

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Qualifying at the Losail International Circuit took place in ideal weather conditions, with the track temperature at 24-25 degrees Celsius. This weekend is slightly cooler than usual when F1 is in Qatar. Due to gravel being cleared from the track, the start of Q2 and Q3 was slightly delayed. In the middle of Q3, there was a short red flag as marshals cleared a visor tear-off brought onto the track by Sainz from the pit lane.

Qualifying results for the 2025 Qatar GP

The fight for Pole Position and race forecast for the frontrunners

The pace of the drivers in this qualifying was excellent. Piastri improved last year’s track record by nearly 1.2 seconds, and was also nearly 0.7 seconds faster than in Friday’s sprint qualifying. In total, 13 drivers went faster in qualifying than the time that gave Pole Position in 2024. The track has not changed, the tire compounds are the same. This year the tires are even less grippy because Pirelli imposed higher pressures. Apparently, there are better weather conditions because there was less wind. The vast majority of the pace improvement is on the side of the cars.

In qualifying, four drivers were in the hunt for the top positions. In Q3, the McLaren drivers set the bar extremely high on their first run. Norris and Piastri drove excellent laps then, having a clear advantage over their rivals. Personally, I expected those results to be so good that they wouldn’t be improved upon or the improvement would be minimal. Norris made a slight mistake in the first sector on his second attempt and gave up on that lap, knowing he would have to drive perfectly to improve his previous time. Piastri, on the other hand, performed an excellent second lap, improved in the first sector, set the overall record for the second, and in the third was only 0.002 seconds slower than on the first attempt. This gave him Pole Position and a new track record. Piastri has been the fastest in both qualifying sessions and the sprint this weekend. The Australian historically records excellent results at this facility, which suits his driving style very well. Norris took second place, but he should be satisfied with it.

Verstappen and Russell competed for third place. After the first runs in Q3, the Briton was better. The Dutchman improved by almost 0.3 seconds on his second lap, setting the overall record for the first sector in the process, which gave him third place. Russell also had a very good second lap, except for the first sector, where he went slightly slower than on his first attempt. This was decisive, as Verstappen won this duel by a margin of 0.009 seconds.

The aforementioned four are the best this weekend and I will be surprised if anyone else is in the TOP 4 at the finish of the race, provided it is a clean event. In the sprint, we saw that everyone recorded good pace until the end. The McLaren drivers had a slight advantage in tire management at the end of the stint; it seems Verstappen was the weakest in this regard. The start of the race will be most important; whoever wins it will control the competition. I expect Verstappen, starting from third, to be in a good position to attack and he might overtake Norris. Verstappen and Piastri must be aggressive at the start, because if they lose positions, they will lose their chances for the world title, while Norris should be cautious. I expect a strategy of 1x soft and 2x medium tires or 2x medium and 1x hard at the front. If the drivers expect to be able to do 24-25 laps on medium tires, it is worth taking softs for the third stint. The start will be key, as overtaking over the distance will be difficult. The McLaren drivers should have a slight advantage in tire management, but probably not enough to be able to overtake on track. Strategies and the possibility of an undercut will be more important. McLaren has two drivers at the front, so in case of pit stops during a neutralization, the one behind will lose out.

Overview of other selected drivers and teams

Antonelli and Hadjar drove very well in qualifying and will line up on the third row of the grid. They made full use of their cars, which they failed to do in Friday’s qualifying. Sainz was at a similar level to Friday. Alonso was worse in the main qualifying because he no longer had new tires for the final segment. Gasly deserves great praise, as his advancement to Q3 is a big positive surprise. This track requires excellent aerodynamics, and the Alpine car falls short in this area, yet Gasly was in Q3. The slowest in the TOP 10 was Leclerc, who had many problems with the car in qualifying. The Ferrari car is very unstable this weekend.

Nico Hulkenberg missed out on advancing to Q3 by 0.003 seconds. Bortoleto ruined his last lap and also has a five-place grid penalty for a collision in Las Vegas, so he will start from the back row. Hamilton failed again in qualifying, having a terrible weekend and poor pace. The Ferrari car does not work here, and Hamilton completely cannot find himself in it. I wonder if they will change the settings again? Tsunoda disappointed; he performed very well in Friday’s qualifying but failed in the main one and was eliminated in Q1.

Preview of the 2025 Qatar GP race

The Losail International Circuit is characterized by a very smooth and fast layout. Drivers reach high average speeds; there is only one corner (number 6) taken at a speed below 100 km/h, the other corners are fast, and some are even taken without lifting off the throttle. The facility was designed for motorcycle racing, which is why the track layout is so smooth. In Formula 1, this works mainly in qualifying, as it allows the full potential of the cars, which generate high aerodynamic downforce, to be shown. Numerous fast corners mean that the car and driver are often subjected to high G-forces, so it is a demanding track both for the car and physically for the driver. There is no braking on the track considered very heavy; it is the only such track on the entire F1 calendar. Detailed characteristics along with a diagram can be found at this link.

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The facility in Qatar has only one long straight with a DRS zone, which does not end with heavy braking. In 2021 and 2023, there were many overtaking maneuvers in Qatar, but in 2024 the FIA shortened the DRS zone by as much as 175 meters, which significantly reduced the number of duels. Overtaking is very difficult at this facility. Due to the long run to the first corner, there is a chance to gain a position at the start; drivers starting from odd-numbered positions should have a particular advantage.

The weather has been stable all weekend, and conditions are expected to be the same on Sunday. Safety car deployments and virtual neutralizations are quite frequent in Qatar, and crashes are possible especially on the first lap.

Tire mathematics

Pirelli brings the hardest tire compounds to the Losail International Circuit because the track layout puts a lot of stress on the tires. The demands placed on the tires are comparable to tracks like Suzuka or Barcelona, i.e., the highest in the entire calendar. Only one long straight means that the tires are subjected to high loads continuously for 3/4 of the lap distance. The left tires and those on the front axle are the most loaded, so drivers must pay particular attention to the front left wheel. Degradation of the harder compounds is not high; it is possible to run a one-stop strategy on this track. However, Pirelli is concerned about tire damage under such high loads. Gravel is also a problem, as driving over it leads to cuts on the top layer of the tires.

For this reason, Pirelli has imposed a limit of 25 laps on a single set of tires; tires from other sessions also count towards this. So if someone, for example, did 3 laps on a given set in qualifying, they can do a maximum of 22 on it in the race. The Qatar GP race is 57 laps long, so drivers must go for two pit stops.

If the race is clean, expect some drivers to follow a safe strategy, doing e.g. 18-20 laps on each set of tires. Some may risk e.g. an earlier first pit stop or delay it significantly. Track position is key, and they will pay attention to this when determining strategy.

If a neutralization or virtual neutralization occurs during the race at a time when pitting then allows for a two-stop strategy, expect almost all drivers to pit, which will make the race very boring and predictable. Theoretically, if a neutralization occurred on the 10th lap, then everyone would change tires because they would then be able to do two stints of 23 and 24 laps each.

All drivers have one new set of hard tires and two new sets of medium tires at their disposal. Even if they have used soft tires, they are only slightly used. Strategic possibilities are wide.

Summary

The sprint in Qatar was terribly boring with only one successful overtaking maneuver. The race promises to be a sprint without tire saving. The pace will be high, which means there shouldn’t be much direct fighting. A possible neutralization will significantly change the situation for the worse if it appears at a favorable moment for strategy, or for the better if it appears at an unfavorable moment. Oscar Piastri seems to be the favorite for the win, which would allow him to keep his championship hopes alive. A win for Lando Norris will secure him the championship. Piastri and Verstappen must beat Norris to stay in the title fight for the season finale. A nervous race is ahead, where pace and strategy will play a key role.

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