Analysis of qualifying before the 2026 Belgian GP

Kimi Antonelli clearly defeated his rivals in the qualifying for the 2026 Belgian GP, which delivered a lot of excitement in the final segment. The drivers’ pace was better than predicted, and the situation at the front changed significantly. Welcome to the analysis of the qualifying for the 2026 Belgian GP.

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Qualifying at Spa-Francorchamps took place in ideal weather conditions. The track surface heated up to 35-37 degrees Celsius. We had a slight delay at the start of Q3 due to Hulkenberg’s failure on the out lap and a red flag in the middle of Q3 due to the need to clean gravel, but these situations did not affect the results.

Qualifying results for the 2026 Belgian GP

Fight for Pole Position and race forecast for the front runners

Two important things happened in qualifying. The drivers’ pace was significantly better than predicted. The Spa-Francorchamps circuit, due to its length and layout, was considered the worst track for the new cars/engines, but Antonelli was “only” 3.8 seconds slower than last year when the track record was set. Antonelli’s time was only 0.7 seconds worse than the best result at the start of the previous regulations in 2022. The second important thing is the different approach to lap strategy, electric energy usage, etc. Differences between teams in this regard remained but are smaller than in practice. For example, Red Bull drivers had about 0.3 seconds deficit to Mercedes in the first sector, where except for one corner, the throttle is fully open all the time, but Verstappen was the fastest in the second sector, which is all corners (he used more power than rivals there). This will be very important in the context of the race and battles.

Kimi Antonelli was the clear favorite to win qualifying after practice and fulfilled that role. He drove an excellent lap at the end of Q3, which secured him the win with a significant margin. Antonelli consistently performed well in the first and third sectors, and on the final lap somehow matched his rivals in the second sector as well, which gave him a well-deserved victory. Max Verstappen secured second place thanks to team tactics. Isack Hadjar, due to exceeding the power unit component limit, will start the Sunday race from the last position regardless of qualifying results, so in Q3 he was pulling Verstappen in the third sector. According to my estimates, the Dutchman gained a little over 0.2 seconds from this, so without the help of his teammate, he would be fighting with Ferrari drivers for positions 5-6. The Dutchman will start from second place and has a chance to shake up the race if he doesn’t ruin the start (which unfortunately has happened to him often this year). At the beginning of Q3, Lando Norris led thanks to a great lap, but he did not improve on his final lap due to going onto the gravel (despite improvement in the first sector). Norris has a 10-place grid penalty for exceeding the power unit component limit, so his position was not that important, as 12th or 13th on the grid is not a big difference.

George Russell was fourth, 0.5 seconds behind Antonelli. This is a very large gap and a big defeat, but strange things are happening there that partially justify him. Russell lost 0.2 seconds in the third sector on his best lap at the end of Q3 compared to his previous run. For some reason, he regularly loses time on straights compared to Antonelli. There must be some problem with the car/engine or settings because this has been going on for some time. I’m not saying Mercedes gives him a worse car; I expect something in the settings or driving style causes this loss. It is worth adding that Antonelli got a new engine this weekend, so his is fresher than Russell’s. Antonelli’s advantage is much greater than the differences on the straights between them; he drove better. Russell will be in the fight for a good place in the race because third on the grid at Spa can be even better than Pole Position at the start.

Ferrari drivers lost over half a second to the leader and took 5th and 6th places. Leclerc should have been higher; he even had a chance for third place because he slightly lifted off the throttle at the end of the lap when he saw a marshal with a yellow flag at the last corner. Hamilton was a few seconds behind him, and the marshal hid the flag. Apparently, it was about a situation in the pit lane that had no impact on what was happening on the track. Leclerc was quite unlucky here.

The Sunday race will be very tense at the front on the first lap. If someone ruins the start, they will suffer big losses. This is a chance for Ferrari drivers to gain and then better manage the race. Antonelli is the favorite but cannot ruin the start; if that happens, he risks getting stuck behind someone or being pushed off the track at the beginning of the battle. Strategically, it is supposed to be a one-stop race.

Overview of other selected drivers and teams

The fight to advance to Q3 was interesting; Gabriel Bortoleto narrowly beat Liam Lawson. Racing Bulls had only one driver in Q3 this time, but Lindblad did very well, finishing eighth. Bortoleto was ninth, so this duo is very satisfied. Isack Hadjar did not set a time in Q3, only helping Verstappen. I almost forgot about Oscar Piastri, who was a bit invisible but ultimately finished seventh. Lawson and Alpine drivers will be fighting for points on Sunday; their potential is similar.

Cadillac drivers performed very well, losing only two seconds to the fastest driver in Q1. This team is gradually developing, and I like that. Aston Martin traditionally at the bottom of the field, but this may be the last time because big changes in the car are expected in Hungary. Along with them, drivers who most often lose team battles this year, Albon and Ocon, were eliminated in Q1. In Albon’s case, it was decided by fractions of a second, and Ocon was very weak today.

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Preview of the 2026 Belgian GP race

The Spa-Francorchamps circuit is the longest track on the entire calendar. Its varied layout, demanding corners, good overtaking spots, very large elevation changes, and variable weather conditions make Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps a track that drivers often consider their favorite. Sectors one and three – engine power and low aerodynamic drag matter most there. Both these sections are driven with the throttle fully open, and there is one heavy braking zone in each. The second sector is the longest and very twisty, so downforce matters there because it consists mostly of fast corners. From 2026, due to the widespread use of active aerodynamics, there are no problems setting up cars; teams use classic wings, only slightly reducing downforce. The full track characteristics of Spa-Francorchamps along with a blog schematic can be checked here.

Spa-Francorchamps has a specific layout at the start. There are only 265 meters to the first corner, one of the shortest distances on the calendar. However, the shape of this corner allows gaining positions, and there is a high risk of collisions. In recent years, there have been several crashes at this spot, often involving multiple cars. After this corner, there is a very long full-throttle section ending with the Kemmel straight, where it is easy to use the slipstream and effectively attack a rival. Therefore, it is not enough to start well and get through the first corner. You also have to drive the next section of the track properly to maintain or improve your position. Leading after the first corner is not necessarily advantageous because the rival behind will use the slipstream on the next straight. The first lap will definitely be very interesting, as will the lap after a possible restart.

This weekend, there are significant differences in the approach to using the full potential of power units, concerning places where electric energy is used. For the race, limits will be higher than in qualifying; during practice, differences between teams were also visible in this regard. I expect this to even out more eventually, but some differences will remain. Spa is a very long track, and energy recovery limits are the same as on short tracks. All this should make for much more overtaking in Belgium than in previous years when DRS trains occurred.

Pirelli brought medium tire compounds to Belgium. On Friday, degradation was slightly higher than expected, but according to Pirelli, the one-stop strategy remains definitely the best option. I remind you that in 2025 it was possible to cover 3/4 of the distance on intermediate tires without major problems, and this year tire wear is slightly lower. Interestingly, most drivers saved two sets of hard tires for the Sunday race. The goal is one pit stop, but they have extra tires in case of a neutralization when they will need to take the opportunity and change tires a second time. I wonder about this choice of hard tires because they will definitely provide stable pace but also somewhat slower. I would not be surprised if drivers start on soft tires and quickly switch to hard (e.g., in case of SC on the first lap) or someone opts for a soft-intermediate strategy.

According to the weather forecast, the whole weekend will be sunny and dry, but on Friday during junior series qualifying, there were light rain showers. Such are the charms of this Ardennes track; the weather situation is never 100% certain. Sunday is expected to be the coolest day of the weekend, with an air temperature of 20 degrees Celsius. Three of the last five races were interrupted by safety car deployments. In Belgium, bigger crashes often occur, which always means full neutralization. Especially on the first lap, there is a risk of collisions between drivers. Spa is a long track, so neutralization has a very big impact on results because depending on when it is announced, some drivers will lose more than others.

Summary

In recent years, races in Belgium did not provide much pure sporting excitement; DRS trains often formed, or favorites won without any problems. This year, I expect much more overtaking and direct fighting. I hope there will be some differences in strategies and not everyone will go the same way. I have a feeling that there will be some clash/crash at the start among the front runners because the track layout and driver order suggest it. Antonelli will be a sure bet to win, and Russell should complete a Mercedes one-two. The fight for third place looks interesting because I don’t see a clear favorite here.

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