This year we have another installment of the saga about whether Max Verstappen will stay at Red Bull, change teams, or leave F1 altogether. The scale of rumors in the media is sometimes very large, many of them are fabricated. It is therefore worth taking a close look at this situation and considering various options.
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Since 2024, during the summer break, the media have been alive with the possible departure of Max Verstappen from Red Bull; we have already gone through many stages of rumors related to this. This year they have intensified to sometimes enormous proportions, many media outlets invent their own stories, which are largely fabricated. Later they are denied, but they have already echoed widely.
The facts are that Verstappen may leave Red Bull after this season, but there are no better options for him in F1 to compete in 2027. There is no guarantee that after changing teams he would fight for better results than currently. In my opinion, the situation will become much better for him in the perspective of the next season. Red Bull (the corporation and the team) have a problem because they want to know Verstappen’s plans now. They would like him to declare or sign a new contract. Verstappen is dissatisfied with the current form of the team, the personnel changes being made. Apparently, he also does not like that engineers do not listen to his comments. Besides, the Dutchman has repeatedly criticized the current technical regulations; modern F1 is not something where he wants to force himself to stay to compete outside the strict top. After years of success, he is used to fighting for the world championship. We have had many examples of top drivers who suddenly fell out of the top due to a worse car; in most cases, motivation dropped significantly.
A few facts about Max Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull and a reminder of Sebastian Vettel
Max Verstappen has been associated with Red Bull throughout his F1 career; he does not know any other environment. He signed the current contract at the beginning of 2022, and it is valid until the end of 2028. It includes clauses allowing termination, which is standard in such contracts. However, only this year does the Dutchman meet the requirements to use such a clause. Reliable media agree that if Verstappen is not in the TOP2 of the general classification by the end of June or the end of July (two different deadlines are mentioned), he can terminate the contract after this season. It is known that he will not be in the TOP2, so he will be able to activate the clause. What is most important from Red Bull’s perspective is that he does not have to inform them immediately; he has time until October. Hence the nervousness among the entire corporation’s management and various meetings in recent weeks. If Verstappen told them in October that he is leaving, they would not find a good successor; they want him to declare earlier. The Dutchman, however, has time for behind-the-scenes talks and decision-making.
An almost identical situation occurred at Red Bull in 2014. Then Sebastian Vettel had a contract until the end of 2015 but used a clause (he had to be in the TOP3 of the classification, and he was lower) and after the 2014 season moved to Ferrari. Younger F1 fans may not remember this, but then Vettel was the most decorated active driver, the face of the entire Red Bull. He decided to move to Ferrari, which he had dreamed of since childhood, influenced by Red Bull’s situation related to the Renault engine in the new regulations – it was known that he would no longer win a championship there.
Limited options for Verstappen in F1
Max Verstappen wants to fight for the highest goals in Formula 1. Four teams adapted best to the new technical regulations and only they currently form the front runners: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull. In my opinion, Aston Martin can also be considered a team with potential, but it will take a few years for them to enter the front. Verstappen therefore has four theoretical possible directions, but realistically the options are smaller.
Leclerc and Hamilton have contracts for 2027, so there is no place for Verstappen at Ferrari. Perhaps he will be there for the 2028 season if Hamilton retires next year. Ferrari likes to have two big names in the lineup, so theoretically such a transfer would be possible.
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We know that Toto Wolff has talked many times with Verstappen and his entourage, but that was in the previous two years. In 2026, the situation has changed significantly. Mercedes has the best car and can dictate terms, and Kimi Antonelli is succeeding and rapidly becoming an F1 star. George Russell does not always keep up with him but shows the appropriate level, so they have two drivers fighting for the World Championship. If it were not for numerous failures, their drivers would currently dominate the field. Changing the lineup currently makes no sense for Mercedes. In the perspective of 2028, it may be different because one of the seats may become free then. In my opinion, if this year Mercedes drivers stylishly secure a double in the drivers’ classification and none of them fail mentally due to pressure, Verstappen in Mercedes will be forgotten. If one of the Mercedes drivers performs worse, his position in the team will weaken, and a change for 2028 will be possible.
Aston Martin would be an ideal option for Verstappen if it were not for the terrible form at the start of this season. Fernando Alonso is approaching retirement; Verstappen could replace him, having a similar status in this team as at Red Bull, i.e., a clear number one, because Lance Stroll is no threat. Adrian Newey is there, Honda is there; it would be a familiar environment for the Dutchman. However, the level of this team is currently very off-putting. I do not think Verstappen is interested in a multi-year project and accepting driving in the midfield for a year or two. Verstappen could join this team only if they improve significantly. Therefore, this is also an option that may become real in the perspective of the 2028 season.
The poor options above have made McLaren the main media direction currently. Zak Brown confirmed talks with Verstappen’s manager, but it looks like it was more of a probe for the future. Norris and Piastri have contracts for another year. Norris’s position is secure due to the world championship. There are rumors that Piastri might want to leave, but this has been denied. Zak Brown certainly has ambitions to bring Verstappen; he could pay him a lot of money and offer guest starts at Le Mans 24 and Indy 500. Marketing-wise, he would be perfect for them; they would sell tons of orange gadgets. However, there is a serious problem here: McLaren is a customer team. It is visible this season that they are behind the factory Mercedes. It is hard to imagine them winning in seasons where power unit development is ongoing. Verstappen would not be in a better position to fight for the F1 World Championship than he is currently at Red Bull.
Verstappen earns huge money; he is currently number one or number two in F1 in terms of earnings – it depends on the ranking. The Dutchman has a salary at Red Bull of $60 million per year. This is a lot of money, but he could easily earn more. He signed the current contract at the beginning of 2022 when he had one world championship. Over the following years, he achieved great success and became more recognizable worldwide. We have seen in recent years how other top drivers sign new contracts and get raises. In my opinion, Verstappen’s and his manager’s actions largely concern money and position in the team because no matter how it ends, Max will earn more. If Red Bull keeps him longer, they will have to pay him more. If he finds another team, that team will also pay him more because they have to pay him more than he currently earns for the transfer. Verstappen would only lose financially if he left F1.
Summary and my forecast
In my opinion, Verstappen will stay at Red Bull for the 2027 season but will not sign a new contract. He will leave himself the option to leave before the 2028 season. That will be a very serious option because then various doors in F1 will open, and if he decides he does not like the sport, he will leave completely to race in other competitions. Next year it will also be known whether F1 will change engines to V8 in the future or if that plan will fail. In such a scenario, pressure on Red Bull will be constantly applied; they will want to please Verstappen but will also have to seriously consider plan B if he leaves.
A less likely scenario is Verstappen signing a new contract with Red Bull for the coming years, which would certainly be a record financially but would also block his possibility to leave. For that to happen, he must believe that he can fight for the World Championship again in this team. A transfer to another F1 team for the 2027 season would surprise me greatly; it would be a big revolution. I also do not expect him to leave F1 because, in my opinion, it is not yet the right time for him. What do you think about this, what do you think Verstappen will do?
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