Miami GP 2026 Qualifying Analysis

Kimi Antonelli won the qualifying for the 2026 Miami GP, which considering the course of the weekend must be regarded as a small surprise. A bigger one is Max Verstappen’s second position. The same drivers entered Q3 in the main qualifying as in the sprint qualifying, but the balance of power was different. Welcome to the qualifying analysis before the 2026 Miami GP.

Read more Norris won a calm sprint before the 2026 Miami GP

Qualifying in Miami in 2026 was held in hot conditions, with the track surface heating up to 53 degrees Celsius. Temperatures were similar to Friday, but during the main qualifying a stronger wind appeared. We had a slight delay in the start of Q2 because the marshals had to clean the track after Bortoleto’s car failure.

Qualifying results for the 2026 Miami GP

Battle for Pole Position and race forecast for the front runners

These were the first truly exciting qualifying sessions this year, even though the last laps in Q3 for most of the front runners were slower than the first ones. Drivers from four teams were close to each other, and the final results differ significantly from the times in Friday’s time trial.

Kimi Antonelli was the fastest, which considering Mercedes’ earlier form this weekend is a small surprise. Antonelli was second in Friday’s qualifying, and in the main qualifying he won with a large margin. Both Mercedes drivers improved compared to Friday on a similar scale. The key was the twisty first sector. In the main qualifying, Mercedes drivers were the fastest there, while on Friday they lost quite a bit to rivals. This means Mercedes refined the car setup and regained pace in corners while maintaining speed on straights, as together with Verstappen they were the fastest in the third sector, which consists of two straights and braking. Mercedes regained strength and it is worth emphasizing that Antonelli was again better than Russell, who had no potential in qualifying for the front this weekend.

The biggest surprise for me is Max Verstappen, who took second place. The Dutchman gained as much as 0.5 seconds compared to Friday’s qualifying. Red Bull refined the car because the Dutchman gained this time in the twisty sections while maintaining very good pace on the straights. I am very impressed because at the end of March Red Bull was fighting with Alpine for the title of the fourth force, and in Miami Verstappen took second place. The improvement in Red Bull’s car performance is huge; we will see if they confirm it in the race and in the coming weekends. On the other hand, Hadjar’s form looks bad, as he is significantly off the pace this weekend.

Ferrari was in the broad front group but lacked a bit to fight for victory. Both drivers improved compared to Friday and also took higher positions, which should be considered a good sign. However, Ferrari does not have good enough pace to fight for Pole Position, and the reason is losses on the power unit side. In the race, they could be a dark horse because they start well and can gain in case of rain. Hamilton did two days of wet tire testing in April; no one has driven so much in the rain this year with the new cars, and this could be an advantage for Ferrari.

McLaren is a big disappointment. They were the best in Friday’s qualifying and in the sprint, but disappointed in the main qualifying. From the first segment, there was no sign of strong pace. In Q3, Norris and Piastri were 0.3 to 0.4 seconds slower than on Friday, hence much worse positions in the results table. I don’t know what happened here. I don’t believe the reason is changes in setup for rain because that would be a mistake, as in that case some things could be changed in the car tomorrow. Perhaps the reason was a change in weather conditions – stronger wind or some error in setup. Both drivers were slower, so it is definitely not the drivers’ fault.

Read more Norris fastest in qualifying for the sprint in Miami in 2026

Overview of other drivers and teams

I will complete this section on Sunday.

Preview of the 2026 Miami GP race

The Miami International Autodrome is a temporary facility built annually on the parking lot around the stadium. It is a fast track requiring aerodynamic packages with low or medium downforce. There are two long straights, on one of which the maximum speed in races can exceed 350 km/h. The slow section of the track with the chicane is tricky and disrupts drivers’ rhythm. So it is a varied track with different types of corners, theoretically very good for racing. The layout in Miami favors overtaking and direct wheel-to-wheel battles. There are several good overtaking spots, and it is possible to stay close to a rival in corners. At the same time, it is not a track where overtaking comes very easily. The designers managed to find a golden mean, which cannot be said about every track. The approach to the first corner at the start is quite short, but the configuration of the first bends should allow fighting even up to corner number 11. A detailed track characteristic in Miami along with a diagram can be found at this link.

Pirelli brought the three softest tire compounds. During the sprint, no noticeable tire wear was seen, which is not surprising. In previous years in Miami, the dominant strategy was one pit stop because tire degradation and performance differences between compounds were small. The timing of the pit stop was quite flexible, not directly resulting from degradation level but from strategy. The most stressed tires are the rear and right ones due to the track layout, especially the right rear. In Miami, drivers must watch out for thermal tire degradation due to high asphalt temperatures. Due to forecasted rain and lower air temperature, this will not be a problem in Sunday’s race. In a dry race, a simple one-stop strategy using medium and hard tires is expected. If SC or VSC appears at the start of the race, some drivers will make their only pit stop then. In case of a later neutralization, it will be worth changing tires, also to a soft compound.

Friday and Saturday in Miami were hot, but rain is expected on Sunday. Rainfall is forecast from the morning hours, and in the afternoon, i.e., during the race, storms are also possible. According to US law, if a storm appears nearby, the event must be stopped. The track surface dries quickly, so in case of light rain there is a chance for racing in changing conditions. The track has wide asphalt run-off areas in places, but most of the circuit is tightly surrounded by barriers. Especially at the end of the second sector, there is a twisty and narrow section where any mistake will mean hitting the wall and blocking the track. Races in the 2022 and 2024 seasons were interrupted by safety car deployments, while in the 2023 and 2025 seasons there were no such situations.

Summary

The F1 world will be watching the weather very closely on Sunday. If it rains, a very interesting but also chaotic race is expected. Apart from a few cases, drivers and teams have no experience driving in the rain with this year’s cars, and Miami is a difficult track with barriers close to the road, so accidents and neutralizations may occur.

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