Qualifying analysis before the 2026 Chinese GP

Kimi Antonelli won F1 qualifying for the first time in his career and will start from Pole Position for the 2026 Chinese GP. The Italian beat George Russell, who had technical problems in Q3, while the subsequent positions were taken by Ferrari and McLaren drivers. I invite you to the qualifying analysis before the 2026 Chinese GP.

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Qualifying in Shanghai was held in good weather conditions, with the track temperature ranging from 32-29 degrees Celsius. It was slightly colder and windier than on Friday, which resulted in slightly slower lap times. At the end of Q2, Bortoleto went off track in the final corner and lightly hit the barrier, leading to a yellow flag and hindering several drivers. At the start of Q3, Russell had technical problems and stopped on track, but managed to return to the garage.

Qualifying results for the 2026 Chinese GP

Current F1 pecking order

Before moving to the main discussion, it’s worth noting one thing. In Friday’s and Saturday’s qualifying, the same drivers were eliminated in the respective segments, only the order was different. The three slowest teams are currently Williams, Aston Martin, and Cadillac. Mercedes leads ahead of Ferrari and McLaren. In the midfield are Red Bull, Alpine, Haas, Racing Bulls, and Audi – the order in this group is dynamic. It seems a pecking order has crystallized, but it will obviously change with car development and due to different tracks. I’m betting that in two weeks’ qualifying, both Red Bull teams will perform better, while Ferrari will be slightly weaker than in China.

The battle for Pole Position and race forecast for the leaders

Qualifying provided excitement at the very end due to Russell’s technical troubles. The Briton spent most of Q3 in the garage, completing only one timed lap at the very end, which gave him second place. Antonelli took advantage of this, driving two good laps to secure his first career Pole Position. The Italian decisively broke the record for the youngest PP winner, which belonged to Vettel. Both Mercedes drivers put together their optimal or near-optimal laps at the end of Q3, but this time they didn’t have as large an advantage as in Australia. Third-placed Hamilton lost 0,35 seconds, whereas in Australia the third driver lost 0,8 seconds. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, Russell had problems in Q3; he is usually faster than Antonelli, as has been the case all weekend. It’s safe to assume he would have been able to find another 0,2 or 0,3 seconds. Secondly, this track is much better than Australia in terms of electrical energy recovery, so the differences between engines in this area have blurred. It’s worth adding that Norris was fastest in the first sector, and Leclerc in the second. Their advantage over Antonelli was measured in thousandths of a second, but it was there. In the third sector, both Mercedes drivers were best, but third-placed Piastri lost 0,1 seconds. Mercedes’ qualifying advantage in China has decreased.

Ferrari was the second force in qualifying. Hamilton confirmed he likes the Shanghai track and beat Leclerc. Both drivers lost about 0,1 seconds in the first sector on their final laps compared to previous attempts. It’s hard to say if there were minor errors or if it was a different energy deployment strategy, as they improved in the remaining sectors. Ferrari has excellent starts, so starting from the second row, they will aim for a double lead on the first lap. If they play as a team and don’t fight each other, but tactically use extra power for defense, the Mercedes drivers won’t find it easy to overtake them. In terms of cornering pace, Ferrari performs similarly to Mercedes; the losses occur on the straights, so the reason is the engine / excessive drag of the car.

McLaren reduced its losses in China. They are still the third force but have clearly closed in on Mercedes. Better pace on the straights is also visible, suggesting better engine power utilization. According to unofficial information, the Mercedes and Ferrari cars do not have excess weight at the start of the season, while the McLaren car does. Therefore, it seems McLaren has more room for development in the coming weeks. In China, fighting for a podium in a clean race seems out of reach, so they should take some risks with strategy.

Purely theoretically, if we add the best sector times of all drivers, Mercedes is in the lead, with a tie for second place between Ferrari and McLaren, who are 0,163 seconds behind. This is, of course, only theory.

In the race, I expect a Ferrari attack at the start; if they succeed, they will put pressure on Mercedes for several laps. The sprint showed us that Mercedes’ race pace is the best, but they need a clear track to show it. Tire selection among the leaders is the same, so strategies should be similar, i.e., using medium tires and hard tires for the longest stint.

Overview of other drivers and teams

Pierre Gasly performed excellently, beating both Red Bull drivers. Franco Colapinto also performed very well, narrowly missing out on Q3 by 0,005 seconds. Alpine made a significant improvement in China, not just due to a better understanding of the engine. They look like the strongest midfield team, and they can finally be praised, as this form was expected before the season.

Red Bull, on the other hand, looks terrible. Despite significant changes to the car after the sprint, form has not significantly improved. Realistically, they are losing over a second to Mercedes and about half a second to third-placed McLaren. The only plus in the team’s current situation is Hadjar’s good form, driving at Verstappen’s level. Given the poor starts, Red Bull will be at risk of getting stuck in the midfield battle during the race.

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Team Haas deserves praise; Bearman advanced to Q3, and Ocon lost very little. They have the potential to fight for points