Analysis of qualifications before the 2026 Italian GP

Pierre Gasly caused a huge surprise by winning the qualifying for the 2026 Italian GP. The competition at the Monza circuit was extremely close; never before in F1 history has the tenth driver in Q3 lost only 0.5 seconds to the winner. Welcome to the qualifying analysis before the 2026 Italian GP.

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Qualifying at the Monza circuit went very smoothly, with no crashes or interruptions in any of the segments. The weather conditions were demanding, as the track temperature was between 51-54 degrees Celsius.

Qualifying results for the 2026 Italian GP

Discussion of the fight for Pole Position and race forecast

We haven’t had such a big surprise in Formula 1 qualifying for a long time. If we consider only clean sessions held on a dry track, we would have to go back even several years to find a similarly big surprise as Pierre Gasly’s Pole Position at Monza. Importantly, Gasly was the fastest in a fully sporting competition. There were no random events in Q3; all drivers had the opportunity to complete their optimal laps. The Frenchman was fastest in Q1, took fourth place in Q2, and was again the fastest in Q3. The lap that gave him Pole Position was driven using only minimal aerodynamic slipstreaming; he was a few seconds behind Hamilton but too far to benefit significantly. Gasly simply drove excellently and consistently. He did not have the fastest sector time in any sector but was among the top in each. Alpine prepared a really very good car for this weekend, as Franco Colapinto also drove very well. He took eighth place, but his gap was about 0.4 seconds. He performed better in earlier segments but did not gain as much time in Q3 as he should have. Why was Alpine so strong? Their car must generate low aerodynamic drag compared to rivals. Monza is a very specific track where downforce and cornering pace are not as important as on typical circuits.

Favored George Russell, despite help from Kimi Antonelli, who pulled him on the start-finish straight in both attempts, took second place in Q3. When he improved on his second lap, it seemed he had Pole Position in the bag, but then Gasly beat his time. Russell did not complete an optimal final lap. In the first sector, he was clearly slower than on the first attempt, and the reason was Verstappen. The Dutchman slightly blocked Mercedes drivers before the Parabolica, so Russell was not as close to Antonelli on the straight as planned, and his slipstream gains were smaller than on the first attempt.

Oscar Piastri was third in qualifying but received a deserved three-place grid penalty for blocking Lawson in Q2 – he was very distracted then. Lando Norris only took ninth place. McLaren drivers will therefore start from the back positions. Piastri drove a great first lap in Q3 but spoiled the second. Norris had two weak laps. On the first, he pulled Piastri, but he himself was not pulled because Piastri drove poorly when he was supposed to. McLaren is not the fastest here, even with slipstreaming tactics. I do not predict a podium for them in a clean race. Monza does not suit their car at all, which was expected.

Ferrari drivers took fourth and fifth places, and after Piastri’s penalty, this gives them the second row on the grid. This is the result I expected. Thanks to an improved engine and aerodynamic upgrades, Ferrari performed very well. If someone expected more, they are too optimistic. They still lose to Mercedes and Red Bull in engine power, which is very noticeable on such a track. Ferrari usually has better race pace, so I have high expectations for the race. A double podium is, in my opinion, realistic. The start and later cooperation within the team will be key. If the drivers fight each other for positions, they may lose more than they gain.

Max Verstappen had no help in Q3 because Liam Lawson was eliminated earlier, so he did not benefit from slipstreaming. His Q3 lap showed the pure potential of Red Bull at this venue. If he could have followed someone, there was a chance for third place. In my opinion, Verstappen will be in the podium fight in the race. Red Bull performs better on this track; it suits them more. The Dutchman just needs a good start, and then the opportunity to gain positions will open up.

Tenth in Q3, Arvid Lindblad lost exactly 0.500 seconds to the Pole Position time. Since the introduction of the three-segment qualifying format in F1 in 2006, Q3 has never been this tight.

Based on long-run times from Friday’s second practice, Mercedes looked best. Just behind them was Ferrari, then Red Bull and McLaren. Alpine had significant losses. Teams changed setups for Saturday, but in the third practice, no one tried long runs, so we don’t have certain data. I expect Gasly will unfortunately fall off the podium but should, thanks to straight-line speed, disturb the favorites. Russell needs to lead to calmly build an advantage; otherwise, victory is not guaranteed. I expect more risk from Ferrari and Verstappen in strategies, e.g., starting on soft tires or extending the first stint.

Overview of other selected drivers and teams

Kimi Antonelli will start the race from the back of the grid due to a power unit change (like Lawson and Albon). I expect Antonelli to start the race on hard tires and impress on intermediates or softs towards the end. He should quickly break into the front group. A 5th-6th place in a clean race is realistic. To be higher, he will need a safety car at a convenient moment.

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The midfield is classically very close. Audi drivers and Bearman (who has an improved Ferrari engine) should be in the fight for minor points competing with Colapinto and Lindblad. I’m curious if Antonelli and Lawson will be able to efficiently break through midfield drivers who should be close to each other.

At the back of the grid is Aston Martin, whose losses on straights are huge due to the Honda engine. Alonso on his best lap was regularly 20 to 30 km/h slower than Russell. This is literally a chasm. I see bleak prospects for Honda; catching the front may take them 2-3 years. Cadillac was better than Aston Martin thanks to the Ferrari engine. This may be the last such situation this year (possibly Las Vegas still), as the aerodynamic advantage is definitely on the side of the green cars.

Preview of the 2026 Italian GP race

The Monza circuit in Italy is a unique venue in the entire Formula 1 calendar, known as the temple of speed. About 80% of the lap distance is covered with the throttle fully open – the most in the season. The track consists of several long straights connected by chicanes or fast corners. Over one lap, drivers make the fewest gear changes in the calendar, but it is the venue where the power unit is most stressed. Differences in engine power and efficiency are most visible here. Since 2026, due to the widespread use of active aerodynamics, there is no longer a need to bring special aerodynamic packages, but teams have introduced minor changes. The full Monza circuit characteristics with a blog schematic can be checked here.

At Monza, the start is very important due to the long approach to the first braking zone. The layout of the initial corners is very tricky, and big crashes often occur there. In 2026, overtaking should be definitely easier, with several places for it. Drivers will have different energy management strategies, so expect many counters and position recoveries. On the other hand, Monza will be the worst track in the calendar for new engines because a lot of power is needed, and battery charging capabilities are very limited. In many situations, full power will be lacking at the end of straights.

Pirelli brought the three softest tire compounds for the Italian GP. Monza is a venue that heavily stresses tire construction due to strong braking, but the actual wear of individual compounds is not high because long straights dominate and there are few demanding corners. Additionally, due to the long pit lane, the time loss for a pit stop is very large. For this reason, teams always aim for a one-stop strategy at this track. It will be similar this year. Analysis after Friday’s practices shows that all compounds are suitable for the race, so different configurations may be used. The start is extremely important here, so there may be many drivers starting on soft tires hoping to gain positions. The pace difference between hard and medium compounds is only about 0.2 seconds, and between medium and soft is, according to Pirelli, 0.5 seconds. What is important is that the timing of tire changes is not fixed. Some drivers may make their only planned pit stop early, while others may wait, e.g., until they have completed 2/3 of the distance, hoping for a VSC or SC.

This year, there are real heatwaves at Monza, with air temperatures of 32-34 degrees Celsius daily, and the track heating up to over 50 degrees. This obviously has a big impact mainly on car reliability. The last three races at Monza were clean, without any neutralizations, but earlier safety car deployments were common. The probability of a safety car is highest at the start, then mainly due to bigger crashes. A VSC cannot be ruled out, e.g., if there is a lot of gravel on the track.

Summary

Surprises like Gasly’s win are very good for all of F1. For Sunday’s race, we have several important scenarios. Will Gasly stay in the front? How much and how quickly will Antonelli break through after starting from the back? How will the fight at the front look, where different strategies are possible and the initial layout is unusual? Monza this year should provide many more direct duels, overtakes, and counters. It should not be such a procession and DRS trains as in previous years. The favorite to win remains Russell, but in my opinion, attention should be paid to Ferrari drivers and Verstappen; they can achieve really good results here.

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