Three Formula 1 races of the 2026 season are behind us, and there is a very long break before the Miami GP, where the pecking order could change significantly. On this occasion, I have briefly summarized the situation of each team and written about what can be expected from them for the rest of the season.
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The 2026 Miami GP promises to be a new opening for the season. Every team should bring a significant package of updates for their car then. In some cases, these could be really large packages, as many innovations were planned for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, and everything will be compressed into a later date. There will likely also be some regulatory changes regarding the use of power units, but this is not yet settled. In June, new methods for measuring compression in internal combustion engines come into force, which could also affect the pecking order. Therefore, the situation in F1 after the forced break should change. I don’t think it will be a season marked by total Mercedes dominance.
We have a month’s break from F1 competition ahead of us, so it’s worth briefly discussing the situation of each team.
Mercedes
Mercedes proved itself as the favorite at the start of 2026. They prepared the best engine and a very good car. The team and drivers are not disappointing, so they have become the main favorites for both championship titles. In theory, from Mercedes’ perspective, everything is perfect, but this team cannot rest on its laurels for many reasons, as rivals will likely get the opportunity to improve their engines and make up at least some of the deficit. The team faces three important challenges for the rest of the season. Regulatory changes will certainly be pushed to weaken Mercedes’ performance, so they will have to oppose them. Mercedes must effectively and regularly develop the car, otherwise rivals will overtake them. They will also have to manage internal driver rivalry, as probably no one seriously expected Antonelli to be good enough to compete with Russell. A potential internal struggle will weaken the team.
Ferrari
Ferrari started the 2026 season very well; I dare say they have the best car on the grid. It’s clear that their drivers feel confident in it, they are able to regularly fight rivals during races, and no related problems are appearing. I really like Ferrari’s introduction of various innovations; finally, they are the ones coming up with interesting things rather than just copying. The problem is the power unit, which is too weak. This is the biggest challenge for Ferrari: will they manage to close the gap to Mercedes caused by the engine during the season? The start of the season suggests that much-needed stability will prevail at Ferrari. Both drivers and the management should stay for another season, as the results are at a good level. If they develop the car and engine well this year, in my opinion, Ferrari will achieve a lot of success, but the fight for the world championship is more of a 2027 prospect. For Ferrari to fight for the championship this year, two conditions must be met: their own significant performance improvement and serious problems for Mercedes with car development.
McLaren
The start of the season for McLaren has been marked by many failures, but the Japanese GP showed us their high potential. McLaren was the only top team that didn’t have significant car updates from the first tests until the end of March. They saved their entire budget, so we can expect more from them. In previous years, they showed they can develop very effectively during the season, and it could be similar in 2026. In terms of the engine, they will always be slightly behind the factory Mercedes, but they have a real chance to make a better car than them. Therefore, in my opinion, McLaren has a chance to return to the level known from previous seasons later in the year. Form at the Miami GP will clarify a lot for us, as they are expected to have many changes to the car then, including a much-needed “weight-loss therapy.”
Haas
The Haas team has been revitalized since the change of boss and the subsequent partnership with Toyota. They started the new season at a high level; with a bit of luck, they would have even more points. Haas must have prepared a really good car because, in terms of the engine, they are losing out to their direct rivals (Alpine and Red Bull), which shows there is potential in this team. In the middle of this year, Haas is finally expected to get its own high-level simulator, which will help in race preparation and further development. The very start of the season suggests an important internal duel between the drivers. Ocon cannot afford to lose, as it would significantly weaken his position in F1. Bearman wants to move up to Ferrari quickly, so he must be consistently better and would need a few standout performances. Hopefully, this rivalry will have a positive impact on the team rather than a destructive one.
Alpine
The Alpine team has moved up from being the weakest team last year to the midfield, meaning they have fulfilled their plan. If anyone was optimistic enough to think they would be even stronger, I congratulate them on their imagination. Alpine benefits from a competitive Mercedes engine, and they themselves have made an interesting car with several innovations. Pierre Gasly is delivering good results, but Franco Colapinto is disappointing. This will be a year of verification for the Argentine. He must improve, otherwise even generous sponsors won’t ensure he stays with the team for another year. A major challenge for Alpine will be maintaining an appropriate pace of development, as they are competing in the midfield with teams that seem better organized on paper. I won’t be surprised if Alpine slips slightly in the pecking order in the coming months. A key issue in the coming months will be the new owner of the 24% stake in the team put up for sale. Alpine needs investment from its owners because the Renault group is saving as much as possible.
Red Bull
The departure of many key employees in recent years and the development of the car at the end of the 2025 season must have taken a toll on preparations for the new technical regulations. Red Bull has recorded its worst start to a season in many years; at the moment, the road back to fighting for wins seems very long. The Red Bull Ford power unit is efficient, in my opinion weaker only than Mercedes. Red Bull’s problem is the RB22 car, which is significantly overweight, has too little downforce, and many other issues. Red Bull has already introduced two major aerodynamic update packages this year, but they haven’t made a significant difference. At the moment, Red Bull is fighting with midfield teams rather than chasing the frontrunners. The longer this continues, the more the “decay” of the team will progress. A lack of rapid improvement means Max Verstappen will lose motivation entirely and leave after this season, which would be a huge blow for Red Bull. No good driver will come to this team if even Verstappen loses hope. I expect Red Bull to improve, but not enough to join the fight at the front for victories.
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Racing Bulls
The fact that the junior Racing Bulls team is showing form only slightly worse than the main Red Bull team confirms that the engine is not the problem. The junior team started the season at their level, scoring points every weekend. Arvid Lindblad has had a very successful F1 debut; it looks like a good F1 career awaits him. Midfield competition is the goal for this team for the rest of the season.
Audi
Before the season, I was most worried about Audi’s form, but the German team has prepared a really good engine, and their car is performing well, giving them the opportunity to fight in the midfield. Audi is aiming to fight for the world championship only in 2030. The factory in Hinwil is constantly being renovated, and employment is growing. This is not yet a team capable of fighting at the front. The start of the 2026 season allows for optimism that they will compete in the midfield throughout this season. They must improve systematically, and that will be possible. The group has already spent a lot of money on the F1 project. If they had started at the back of the grid, the mood among management would not be good.
Williams
Williams was the quickest to focus fully on car development for the 2026 season, yet they prepared a design that is very unsuccessful. It’s hard to find any advantages or innovative solutions in their car. Williams has the best engine on the grid, so their car must be the worst. It looks very bad, but in this case, one can hope that within a few weeks they will find themselves in the midfield. The Williams FW48 is significantly overweight (due to failed crash tests), but the team knows how to quickly put it on a diet (according to the team principal). If the rumors about the scale of the weight problem are true, it fully accounts for the team’s deficit to other midfield teams. Therefore, one can think optimistically that Williams’ form will improve significantly after the April break. However, even then, it will be well below expectations and goals. Without a radical improvement in pace, Williams could lose one of its drivers after this season. Sainz and Albon see what is happening, and if an offer from a better team comes along, they will take it. Then it will be difficult for Williams to find someone at a similar level.
Cadillac
The brand-new team started its debut F1 season according to plan. Since the start of testing, they have been improving regularly, and their time gaps to the leaders, as well as to the preceding teams, are at the level that could be expected. Cadillac has plenty of problems resulting from zero experience. They haven’t yet made a pit stop in under three seconds, and the quality of manufactured components is not always at the required level (several fell off during driving). The goal for the rest of the season should be to gradually improve the car so that by the end of the year they are losing around two seconds to the leaders, which would be a great success. Currently, when their gap per lap exceeds three seconds, it will be very difficult to score any points even during a very chaotic (rainy) race.
Aston Martin
This is definitely the biggest disappointment of 2026, the scale of which has exceeded expectations. Aston Martin invested huge amounts of money in a new factory, hired many well-known engineers, and were supposed to improve significantly this year and even fight for the world championship. Their start to the season has been disastrous. The Honda power unit is weak and unreliable, but also the car designed by Adrian Newey is far from perfect and, additionally, clearly too heavy. It’s hard to be optimistic for the rest of the season here. Of course, there are announcements that they will improve significantly soon because Honda will unlock full engine power and the car will start working in the process. They are supposed to develop the car intensively (it has already had many updates) and also reduce its weight. I remember very similar announcements during the McLaren-Honda partnership a decade ago that never came true. Of course, I could be wrong about Aston Martin; the car might speed up significantly, and Alonso and Stroll could soon be fighting for points. Given their form, we might wait many months for real improvement.
The longer the team’s sporting form remains poor, the more negative issues will arise around the team. Sponsors will be dissatisfied, the partnership with Honda will become increasingly strained, and we can expect personnel changes (which are ongoing behind the scenes). Lawrence Stroll does not have unlimited financial resources; he has invested a lot in the team, and with such results, there is no counting on sponsors to cover the budget.
Summary
A separate issue is the new technical regulations in F1, which cause a lot of controversy and extreme opinions. I am among those who like them, but certain changes are necessary, mainly regarding qualifying. I will discuss this in a separate text soon.
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