Shintaro Orihara from Honda officially announced updates to their power unit for the 2026 Miami GP and later this season. However, the reliability improvements are not expected to enhance the performance of Honda’s engine. The situation for the Japanese manufacturer is looking increasingly worse.
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I rarely do such things on the blog, but here there is no room for ambiguity or interpretation. On Tuesday before the 2026 Miami GP, Honda published a longer statement from Shintaro Orihara on their social media, who this year holds the position of chief engineer and chief trackside operations manager. Below is his entire statement translated into Polish:
Words of Shintaro Orihara from Honda before the 2026 Miami GP
It was a long but intense period between races, full of intense work carried out in cooperation with Aston Martin both in Japan and the UK. The Japanese Grand Prix showed that the work is going in the right direction and helped us find motivation for further actions. After that race, we took the opportunity to stop one of the AMR26 cars on site for the first time to conduct further static tests at the Sakura factory, focusing on reducing vibrations and thus increasing reliability. We have made some progress, which will allow us to implement further countermeasures in Miami and later in the season. Realistically, this progress will not have a visible impact on the power unit’s performance on track, so we should not expect major improvements here.
Miami is the first track on the 2026 calendar with many slow corners. It is a unique circuit, with two long open-throttle sections and several slow corners. This combination makes finding a compromise in car setup challenging. Regarding the power unit, the goal is to improve drivability in the slow corner sector, and optimizing energy management in this section is a key factor in maximizing performance. Miami is also the first warm race weekend of the season, so keeping the power unit temperature under control according to the new regulations is crucial. The Miami GP is a sprint weekend, which means we have only one practice session – although 90 minutes long, all engine settings must be optimized according to the new regulations and the best cooling parameters determined before the sprint qualifying, making the first practice (FP1) very important here.
My comment and some unofficial rumors about the car and engine
The statements from Honda’s representative suggest that despite reducing vibrations and improving reliability, there will be no improvement in engine performance. It seems the goal remains to finish races with both cars, preferably avoiding being lapped, which will be very difficult without neutralizations. They have only just started cooperating more with Aston Martin; the car should have been tested at the factory earlier in the year, not in April.
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It is estimated that the weak car and weak engine each account for about half of Aston Martin’s time losses this year. I wrote more broadly about the causes of Honda’s engine problems at the beginning of 2026 on the blog in March. Regarding the car, information dominates about significant overweight, which they will try to gradually reduce. There are also other problems, e.g., with the gearbox, as well as generally with the entire aerodynamic package, which is very radical. If the rumors are to be believed, Aston Martin is preparing major changes for mid-season, possibly related to introducing a new monocoque, which could be called a B version of the car. Adrian Newey has not always designed excellent cars; he also has several highly problematic designs to his name. The Aston Martin AMR26 will certainly be remembered similarly. However, considering Aston Martin’s resources, Newey’s experience, and the rest of the staff, I expect significant improvement, but probably only for the 2027 season. They will learn lessons and prepare a competitive car.
The situation with Honda’s engine looks worse. Shintaro Orihara’s words suggest there will be no performance updates in the near future. He also says that improving reliability and reducing vibrations will not translate into performance gains. The theory that Honda’s engine was “detuned” at the start of the year due to vibrations and would show more power after eliminating them has just collapsed. It was exactly the same at the beginning of McLaren’s cooperation with Honda over a decade ago; there were similar theories that turned out to be false. Honda will certainly get approval for power unit updates this year because they are definitely losing over 2% to the leader, and almost certainly over 4%. Unofficial statements from recent weeks suggested some updates around the summer break, but nothing revolutionary. Personally, I lean towards the suggestion that Honda will focus on a maximum possible overhaul of the power unit for the start of the 2027 season. The beginning of next year will decide their further presence in F1.
Summary
Current engine regulations are approved for five years. There is little chance they will be extended; talks about the 2031 engine are expected to start this year. Honda has financial problems; in its modern history, it has never had such poor results as now. Usually, financial problems in automotive companies mean spending cuts in various areas, including sport. In the previous regulations, they needed four years to prepare a competitive power unit. If there really are new engines in 2031, the development of the current ones will have to be heavily limited or even frozen in advance so manufacturers can shift focus to the next project – this is always how it is done. So there is a chance Honda will not be able to sufficiently improve the current engine. Will they stay in F1 longer? Will Aston Martin keep their contract with Honda despite significant problems? These are questions that will grow. In my opinion, anything is possible. I would not be surprised if Honda leaves F1, nor if Aston Martin breaks their contract and thus pushes them out of F1. Lawrence Stroll has invested hundreds of millions in his F1 team; he cannot afford poor results any longer.
P.S. After the 2026 Miami GP, the FIA will assess the performance of combustion engines. Approval for updates will be given to those losing over 2% performance, and if someone loses over 4%, the possibilities for improvement will be doubled. According to rumors, Mercedes and Red Bull Ford have the best combustion engines; it is very likely these manufacturers will not be able to introduce such updates. Audi, Ferrari, and Honda definitely have losses large enough to qualify for additional updates. We can expect that thanks to this, during the season, the performance differences between engines will decrease.
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